Future Predictions

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What long-term effect might Climate Change have on Honey Bee populations?

     Unfortunately, most research indicates that as the climate continues to warm, trophic

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mismatching (the asynchrony between different trophic levels in an ecosystem [18]) between honey bees and their pollination targets, which are often also their food sources [11], could greatly increase. This depends on the particular ecosystem and local species interactions, and effects in some regions may be much more severe than effects in others [13, 15]. This could have a variety of consequences. Firstly, if the plants advance on the bees, meaning that they bloom earlier and the bees don't change their seasonal peak, it is likely that other species will pollinate these plants. However, if the bees advance on the plants, and there are no alternate food sources, we may very well see continued decline of bee populations [16], meaning increased "pollinator deterioration" [19], and limitations on the growth of many bee-pollinated species that cannot be pollinated as effectively or at all by other insects and animals.

   Currently, honey bees seem to be keeping pace with the phenological advances occurring in spring-blooming plants [5, 7]. However, some researchers warn that this trend may not continue for long, and that many poikilothermic insect species, highly sensitive to climate changes [11], may not be able to survive in the face of continuing and rapid temperature increases. Others speculate that bees and related species will find ways to adapt to the changes induced by climate warming [3, 7], as will perhaps the flowering species experiencing phenological shifts. In any case, forecasting the future of Honey Bees in the face of climate change requires more research, as the passage of time will reveal the effects of warming temperatures and phenological changes more clearly. Waiting too long however, could result in irretrievable losses. 
 

     Despite their ultimate response to global warming, bee populations are already declining due to additional forces largely independent of climate change. Colony Collapse Disorder (whose cause is still largely unknown), as well as the use of certain pesticides and the introduction of new parasites, have together caused massive mortality among honey bees and other bee species in recent years [1, 3, 4]. If we don't find ways to halt the use of harmful pesticides, combat parasites that make bees sick, and closely investigate the causes of CCD and the effects of radiation on hives, we will see an even further drastic decline in the species. If this happens, then all the dreaded ecological, industrial, and economic effects of honey bee decline may come to fruition. If the decline of bee species is allowed to progress too far, due to climate change or the multitude of other challenges they face, then their possible endangerment or extinction is not a far-off possibility.

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